IA's Special Situation Research, Thursday, 2/01/2010.
Los Angeles, CA 47..68F Cloudy.
Chicago, IL, 12..15F Cloudy.
Port Jefferson, NY, 18..40F Snow.
1. Adding N-Viro (NVIC) to Watch List, $3.45.
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1. Adding N-Viro (NVIC) to Watch List, $3.45.
This is our second shot at N-Viro.
We were a few years too early on this one the first time (four to be
exact), but it is starting to look like we may have a big winner brewing.
So we are adding it to IA's Special Situation Research Watch List today at
$3.45. Things have really revved up in the past couple weeks as you can
tell by the chart.
1 Year Chart:
For the last twelve months the shares have been bouncing between $2.00 and
$2.50 and then suddenly in January, it broke over the $2.50 barrier and
then broke over the $3.00 barrier. The final barrier to making a
"genuinely big" move, would be the $4.25 level which it last hit in March
Since we don't have any solid, solid information to attribute the strength
to, this is a "positive news -- follows positive price action" type play
(hopefully) . It;s the reverse of when you own a stock which goes down and
down and down, and then suddenly the bad news comes out !
Here is a 10 year chart.
For the record, we added N-Viro (NVIC) to the Watch List on November 26th
of 2006 at $1.75 -- so officially we are up 102% since then -- but that's
certainly not what we were looking for in terms of price potential when we
first came across the company. When you play with small companies like
these, you should be looking for five or ten fold type potential gains to
offset the inherent risks.
As a client, we even made a trip to their facility and met management in
Toledo Ohio. We pretty much liked everything about the company and viewed
it as a slow grower (revenues are basically unchanged in the last ten
years) but with a little "alternative fuel" division -- that if it caught
traction -- we felt it could send the whole company screaming higher, even
into the mid-teens, as there is only five million shares outstanding.
Our "real simple" math is if they do actually have a product which can
make coal burn cleaner and thus be called an "alternative fuel" play, what
is that worth in today's market? Pick a number out of the air. $25
million? $50 million? $100 million? Now divide "your" number by 5 million
shares. If you guessed $50 million, that would put the stock at $10 !
This is what we liked about the company. In our opinion, no way was this
stock going to be worth only $10 million, if their N-Viro Fuel actually
worked -- which is what it was valued at when we originally found it.
So back to us being a little bit early. We felt that the launch of N-Viro
Fuel was right around the corner back in 2006. But then 2007, 2008 and
2009 all came and went and it's still "right around" the corner.
So the play here -- is trying to find out if a commercially available
N-Viro Fuel is potentially around the corner and your job then, should you
seek to accept it, is to try to determine "is it really around the corner"
or is this a 2012, 13 or 14 play !
This is what we would do, if we were you. Study what they are doing in
Michigan and in Pennsylvania. Especially Michigan.
Oh and by the way, N-Viro Fuel has received alternative energy status from
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Which qualifies the technology
for renewable energy incentives.
Michigan State Power Plant:
Update of Fuel Progress
General News On Renewable Energy
Google N-Viro Fuel
CEO Video: http://www.blip.tv/file/2987199/
CEO Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VijQuZTFdJU
CEO Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqXOG4qS9Oo
N-Viro Fuel is a newly developed and patented biomass fuel that has
physical and chemical characteristics similar to coal and is created from
municipal biosolids and other organic wastes like manure and pulp and
paper sludge. A major transformation is taking place in the coal industry
and, more broadly, the global energy industry, as alternative, cleaner
forms of energy take on increasing prominence. The one thing that remains
constant despite the changes taking place is that coal will continue to be
the cheapest and most abundant form of energy available in the U.S. for
the near term.
The N-Viro Fuel technology was recently tested on a full-scale basis at
the Michigan State University coal-fired power plant. Two different fuels,
one made from biosolids and the other from manure, were blended with
eastern Ohio coal and burned in the power plant’s fluidized bed boiler.
The blended fuels performed well compared to coal alone; air emissions
were below regulatory limits, and the boiler performed normally.
N-Viro Fuel is manufactured from a variety of organic wastes by blending
the waste material with one or more mineral by-products and drying the
mixture. The resulting product, N-Viro Fuel, is blended with coal or
petroleum coke and burned as a coal substitute in coal-fired power plants.
An important advantage of the waste biomass-derived fuel is the ammonia
that is released from the wastes in the process. This ammonia is available
to be used as a substitute for ammonia or urea for NOx removal.
Examples of organic waste used in the process of the present invention
include, but are not limited to, dewatered sewage sludge filter cake,
various animal manures, pulp and paper waste, shredded paper and
cardboard, food waste, and other organic industrial waste.
Dr. Terry Logan, one of the developers of the N-Viro Fuel technology
stated, "I am pleased that we were able to demonstrate the viability of
our technology at a large coal-fired power plant and in collaboration with
a major research institution. Under the leadership of Robert Ellerhorst,
Director of Utilities at MSU, and manager of the T.B. Simon Power Plant,
and with the University's vision and commitment to development of green
energy technology, we successfully tested N-Viro Fuel with municipal
sewage sludge from the City of East Lansing, Michigan and separately with
animal manure from the University's agricultural research operations.
MSU's investment in resources to conduct the test is greatly appreciated."
NVIC: Special Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements. The
Company cautions that words used in this document such as "expects,"
"anticipates," "believes" and "may," as well as similar words and
expressions used herein, identify and refer to statements describing
events that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking
statements and the matters to which they refer are subject to considerable
uncertainty that may cause actual results to be materially different from
those described herein. For example, while the Company believes that
trends in sludge treatment are moving in favor of the Company's
technology, such trends may not continue or may never result in increased
sales or profits to the Company because of the availability of competing
processes. Additional information about these and other factors that may
adversely affect these forward-looking statements are contained in the
Company's reports, including its Annual Report on Form 10- KSB, its
Quarterly Report on Form 10-QSB for the quarter ended June 30, 2007, and
other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company
assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect
actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors
affecting forward- looking information except to the extent required by
applicable securities laws. Client, we received from the company ten
thousand dollars and a warrant to buy one-hundred thousand shares at two
Going Concern Statements.
We would like to point out that the majority of companies listed on the
OTC Bulletin Board have factors which create an
uncertainty about the their ability to continue as a going concern. These
concerns are typically related to financing (or lack of), competitive
environments, lack of operating history and operating at loss levels which
is typical of most start-ups.
These statement can usually be found in their most recent 10Q filings and
typically you don't have to dig to far down past the financial tables. We
like to use http://www.pinksheets.com
for quick and easy access to SEC
filings. We think it would be wise for most investors to assume that all
companies listed on the OTC Bulletin Board (and many on NASDAQ) have going
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